POLAND: PROSPECTS FOR CONFRONTATION

Created: 9/18/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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SPECIAL ANALYSES

POLANDi Prospect* for Confrontation

The Intelligence Community hoeualitative change in the attitudee ef Solidarity and the Polish Communijt Party. The former has direotly challenged the authority of the Polish party end, indirectly, Soviet hegemony in Eastern Kurcpe. The latter hoeetermination to confront Solidarity's challenges) If necessary vith the use of force. enemmnB> . *

-Tha Polish regime is deeply disturbed by'the', outcome of the initial phase of the Solidarity Congress. Tor the .first time it'appears determined to confront Solidarity in order tourther erosion*of its authority and to employ force if the union refuses to back off. eaee*

At its congress, Solidarityet of new and more pointed challenges to party control within Poland andtatement that infersntlally callsuestion Soviet hegemony in Eastern Europe.. skedeferendum on worker self-management ofappealed for free elections to the polishcalled for public control of tha mass media, andetter supporting free trade union.activity in the USSR and EaBtern Europe. tfffb

The government has interpreted Solidarity's line aschallenge to its political primacy. Itthat the somewhattailed nature of the phase of the congress.was conducive to

statements and positions which brought to light divisions .within the union. The regime probably hopes to exploit some of these divisions in order tohange in the union's posture, preferably befosh the opening oneptember of the second phase of cne congress. 4bbbb*

' The Polish regime has drawnetailed planilitary measures, including curfews, shows ofotal military control of the country, and arrest of

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Solidarity loadora. Tha polish leadership appears to be readying itself for thej.ioyment of atome of these measures in the near future:

--The regime seems to have come to doubt the .of .reaching an acceptable modus ":

vivendi with Solidarity radicals.

regime is considering declaring Solidarityillegal organization unless it disavows Its

:.y appeal, to Soviet and East European workers.

,televised Politburo statement on Wednesday accused Solidarity of challenging "vital in-tereats" of the Polish nation and pledged thatgovernment would "use for its defense such means as are required by the situation" to stop the union fromourse leading toe "confrontation threatening bloodshed." emVev

The Soviets have Interpreted the positions takenat its congressrontal challenge toauthority not only in Poland but throughout They have accused extremist elements intrying to seize political power and haveprotest meetings in the USSR and in some East, countries. '

Both the Soviets and the Polish Government havesome flexibility by concentrating their criticism on extremists within. Solidarity. The televised government statement Indicates that the regime still hopes to isolate without violence those unspecified Solidarity leaders whom it labels "politicalut it is prepared to use force if necessary. fffmTmv

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The Polish leadership la undoubtedly aware of the risks Involvedirect'con*roi.iatiun. It cannot be completely confident of the reaction of the population or of the loyalty of the military rank and file. 4esssV

ven' though the regime probably would try tocarefully modulated initial show of force, it must'realize that an abortive limited showdown might inexorably lead to an escalation of violence that could quickly get out of control and precipitate Soviet military-all eventualitlea which it would like to avoid. ftfJsat

* * Even though there are currently no Indications of-an' immutable government plan of action, nor of any alert-ring of units, the government and Solidarity, by their separate activities, haveituation in which the dynamics point to confrontation. Por the government, ;the combination of its televised statement and thereconvening of the Solidarity congress oneptembe intensify the pressure toassert itself and not back down eg it has in the past, ^memens

The chancesonfrontation leading to theime's use of force have risen considerably unless themore moderate elements in Solidarity manage to tone down those union actions most objectionable to the government.

Original document.

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