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If you are in a game show final. You have just one chance to...

<< Back to: sci.math FAQ: Monty Hall problem

Question by Steve
Submitted on 8/5/2003
Related FAQ: sci.math FAQ: Monty Hall problem
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If you are in a game show final. You have just one chance to win the price. So there is no difference sticking or switching. You tell me to switch. I'll do in the game show and then? Will I win?


Answer by Derek Ross
Submitted on 12/9/2003
Rating: Not yet rated Rate this answer: Vote
For you, with your single game, there are no guarantees.  We can say that you are twice as likely to win by switching but if your luck is bad, you will lose and that's all there is to it.  

For the entire group of contestants playing over the next year or so we can be fairly sure that one third of those who stuck will win and two thirds of those who switched will win.

Probability theory can only make predictions for groups of events, not for single ones.


 

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