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in central and eastern Europe where security forces and border con-
trols are less effective
In the twentieth century, strategists focused on the world's great industrial
heartlands. In the twenty-first, the focus is in the opposite direction, toward
remote regions and failing states. The United States has had to find ways to
extend its reach, straining the limits of its influence.
Every policy decision we make needs to be seen through this lens. If, for
example, Iraq becomes a failed state, it will go to the top of the list of places
that are breeding grounds for attacks against Americans at home. Similarly, if
we are paying insufficient attention to Afghanistan, the rule of the Taliban or
warlords and narcotraffickers may reemerge and its countryside could once
again offer refuge to al Qaeda, or its successor.
Recommendation:The U.S. government must identify and prioritize
actual or potential terrorist sanctuaries. For each, it should have a
realistic strategy to keep possible terrorists insecure and on the run,
using all elements of national power. We should reach out, listen to,
and work with other countries that can help.
We offer three illustrations that are particularly applicable today, in 2004: Pak-
istan, Afghanistan, and Saudi Arabia.
Pakistan
Pakistan's endemic poverty, widespread corruption, and often ineffective gov-
ernment create opportunities for Islamist recruitment. Poor education is a par-
ticular concern. Millions of families, especially those with little money, send
their children to religious schools, or madrassahs. Many of these schools are
the only opportunity available for an education, but some have been used as
incubators for violent extremism. According to Karachi's police commander,
there are 859 madrassahs teaching more than 200,000 youngsters in his city
alone.
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It is hard to overstate the importance of Pakistan in the struggle against
Islamist terrorism.Within Pakistan's borders are 150 million Muslims, scores of
al Qaeda terrorists, many Taliban fighters, and--perhaps--Usama Bin Ladin.
Pakistan possesses nuclear weapons and has come frighteningly close to war
with nuclear-armed India over the disputed territory of Kashmir. A political
battle among anti-American Islamic fundamentalists, the Pakistani military, and
more moderate mainstream political forces has already spilled over into vio-
lence, and there have been repeated recent attempts to kill Pakistan's president,
Pervez Musharraf.
In recent years, the United States has had three basic problems in its rela-
tionship with Pakistan:
WHAT TO DO? A GLOBAL STRATEGY
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