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attempt to gather intelligence and wait for an opportunity. One Special Oper-
ations commander said his view of actionable intelligence was that if you "give
me the action, I will give you the intelligence."
148
But this course would still
be risky, in light both of the difficulties already mentioned and of the danger
that U.S. operations might fail disastrously.We have found no evidence that such
a long-term political-military approach for using Special Operations Forces in
the region was proposed to or analyzed by the Small Group, even though such
capability had been honed for at least a decade within the Defense Depart-
ment.
Therefore the debate looked to some like bold proposals from civilians
meeting hypercaution from the military. Clarke saw it this way. Of the military,
he said to us,"They were very, very, very reluctant."
149
But from another per-
spective, poorly informed proposals for bold action were pitted against expe-
rienced professional judgment. That was how Secretary of Defense Cohen
viewed it. He said to us:"I would have to place my judgment call in terms of,
do I believe that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, former commander of Spe-
cial Forces command, is in a better position to make a judgment on the feasi-
bility of this than, perhaps, Mr. Clarke?"
150
Beyond a large-scale political-military commitment to build up a covert or
clandestine capability using American personnel on the ground, either military
or CIA, there was a still larger option that could have been considered--invad-
ing Afghanistan itself. Every official we questioned about the possibility of an
invasion of Afghanistan said that it was almost unthinkable, absent a provoca-
tion such as 9/11, because of poor prospects for cooperation from Pakistan and
other nations and because they believed the public would not support it. Cruise
missiles were and would remain the only military option on the table.
The Desert Camp, February 1999
Early in 1999, the CIA received reporting that Bin Ladin was spending much
of his time at one of several camps in the Afghan desert south of Kandahar.At
the beginning of February, Bin Ladin was reportedly located in the vicinity of
the Sheikh Ali camp, a desert hunting camp being used by visitors from a Gulf
state. Public sources have stated that these visitors were from the United Arab
Emirates.
151
Reporting from the CIA's assets provided a detailed description of the hunt-
ing camp, including its size, location, resources, and security, as well as of Bin
Ladin's smaller, adjacent camp.
152
Because this was not in an urban area, mis-
siles launched against it would have less risk of causing collateral damage. On
February 8, the military began to ready itself for a possible strike.
153
The next
day, national technical intelligence confirmed the location and description of
the larger camp and showed the nearby presence of an official aircraft of the
United Arab Emirates. But the location of Bin Ladin's quarters could not be
pinned down so precisely.
154
The CIA did its best to answer a host of questions
RESPONSES TO AL QAEDA'S INITIAL ASSAULTS
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