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Intelligence Memorandum
Major Directions in Soviet Military Assistance
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Directorate of Intelligence9
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
Major Directions in Soviet Military Assistance
Summary
Sincehe USSR has providedn military assistance to foreign countries, of which Communist countries have receivodnd less developed countries of the Free Worldillion. Only the United States, which has deliveredillion in military aidurpasses the Soviet Unionupplier of arms. During the past twooviet arms aid deliveries have grown to0 millionalmostercent of the size of the annual US deliveries over the same time period.
, Soviet arms aid, both to Communist and Free World countries, has been heavily concentratedew countries. Virtually all Soviet military aid to Communist areas has gone to North Vietnam, North Korea, and Cuba. North Vietnam, alone, has received4 billion of Soviet arms. Althoughoss developed countries in the Free World have received arms fron the USSR, more thanercent of Soviet aid to those areas went to five countries: the United Arabndonesia, Iraq, India, and Syria. The three major Arab belligerents collectively account for2 billion, or more than half the total. Two countriesthe UAR and Indonesiareceived arms on the order of aboutillion each.
Note: This memorandum was produced by CIA. It was prepared by the Office of Economic Research and aae coordinated uith the Office of Strategic Research and the Office of Current Intelligence.
Soviet mi li cory aid in uouAlly Dffcrod on terms very favorable to tho rucipjont. Host typos of weapons supplied to Proo World countries ore prieod considerably below oonpArsblO Western equipment, and in addition tho USSR often oCfara substantialfrom thc list price. Credits to Free Woild countries are amortized over eight to ten years,race period of one to three years,ercent annual interest. Although such terms appear less favorable than the grant basis under which aboutercent of US arms aid is extended, in many countries Soviet aid nay turn out to be little different from grants. To date, only nine of the USSR'sree World arms clients haveany portion of their arms debt, and actualso far total less0 million out of gross debt obligations2 billion. The actual aid terms have varied greatly from country to country, however. For example India received no price discounts and is meeting its repaymentwhile Indonesia received large discounts ond is unlikely to make any substantial repayments. Arms aid to Communist countries is in the form of either grants or long-termt is unlikely that the USSR expects repayment of some of these credits, particularly those for North Vietnam.
Soviet arms deliveries to the Free World have been accompaniedrowing program of military technical assistance as the USSR has sought tofor the serious shortage of skills incountries and to assure more effective maintenance, repair, and use of equipment. Thus far the USSR has dispatched0 Soviettechnicians (in terms of man-years) to the less developed countries, especially to the Arab states. In addition,0 individuals from the less developed nations have received military training in the USSR. The total cost of this assistance is estimated to be0 million. Unlike US technical assistance, which is financed by the United States, the costs of Soviet technical aid have been borne almost entirely by tha recipient countries and paid for in cash or on clearing account.
During the next few years, total deliveries of Soviet military aidnot likely to exceed the
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recent flown of around SHOO millionear. Soviet military aid to North Viutnan will decline considerably if the fighting subsides, especially if there ettlement. Aid to non-Coomuinist countries is likely to continue at something like the recent level0ear. Substantial quantities of arms remain to be delivered under existing agreements, and additional demands for spare parts, replacements, and modcrni2ation will generate new Soviet aid commitments. But the main buildup of Soviet arms among the USSR's largest current Free World customersthe Arab states and Indiaprobably has already occurred, and the most likely new Soviet clients appear to be small countries with limited arms requirements.
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Magnitude and Trend of Sovi.pt Military Aid*
USSR is the world's secondof anas aid. Deliveries of militaryunder Soviet aid programs tolients amounted to anmillion Only the United States,arms aid amounted toillion inlarger quantities.
* Data on Soviet military aid presented in thie memorandum include the value of military equipment provided free of charge or on credits of five years or longer. Soviet aid to non-Communiet countries according to thie definition is almost as large ae the total value of Soviet weapons shipments to these countries because Soviet commercial sales uere very emailn the order0 million, Soviet aommeroial arms sales to Communiet countries (in Easternowever, amounted to several billion dollars, Soviet military aid deliveries to non-Communiet countries are valued at Soviet list prices applicable to foreign weapons sales. Because of the prevalence of diecounte, however, the prices actually oharged the recipient are often substantially below the list prioee.
** US aid figures are on nt fieaal year basis and include grants and credits but exclude non-credit sales by the US government and private firms, which totaled0 millionBB. US aid to South Vietnam is excluded from the data4 because of the nature of direct US forcein the war in that aountry.
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soviet arms supplied to East European Communiststimated to have amountedillion per year recently, are believed to have been financedommercial basis and are therefore not treated as aid in this memorandum.
Soviet global military aidrobably was on the order ofillionoughly S3 billion to Communistndo the loss developed countries of the Free World. The US program, by comparison, amounted toillion, or more than three times the size of the Soviet program. Almost half of the US aid, however, took place in the, when the Soviet program was still small, since then, the disparity in size between the two programs has narrowed considerably, as growth in Soviet aid-has been accompaniedecline in US aid. During the past two years, Soviet aid has averaged more0 million annually, or almostercent of US global military aid.
Soviet military aid to Free World nations apparently has not been affected by the USSR'sdefense requirements or by its commitments to other Communist countries. or example, at the time of the Soviet arms buildup in Cuba, the USSRecord amount of arms to Free World countries. In more recent periods, the USSR has made sizable arms deliveries to the Middle East and other areas of the Free World whilearge flow of military aid to North Vietnam. In relation to Soviet expenditures on defense, arms aid to both Communist and Free World countries is comparatively small, accounting forin recent
*Including Xugoolavia. ** Although firm data are lacking, it is estimated that Soviet aid to North Vietnam, North Korea, and Cubarobably uao48 billion, 7 billion, respectively. This excludes an undetermined amount of technicalfrom the VSSR.
Froc world Recipients
5.. Although the USSR has supplied arms to someree world nations since the program beganore than four-fifths of1 billion in arms deliveries has gone to five countries. As shown in Tablehese countries include the chief Arab belligerents and two of the largest non-Communist countries in Asia.
Table 1
Major Free World Recipients of Soviet Military Aid
Aid Delivered Share of Total
(Percent)
United Arab
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6. The UAR has received the largest share, about one-third, of Soviet military aideries of agreements dating back (Annual deliveries of Soviet military aid by recipientre presented in The initial Soviet agreements* were undertakenime when the UARestern arms embargo. The USSR has since provided the UAR with3 billion in arms aidmore than total US military aid to all of its Middle Bast arms clients. Although
* Although the first direct agreements were inG, the USSII used Czechoslovakia as an intermediary5 million agreement with the UARS.
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vast quantities of Soviet equipment were lost in the warn with Israel, particularly inhe Egyptian forces have been largely resupplied and presently constitute the largest Soviet-equipped military force in the Free World.
and Syria alao are among theearliest Soviet arms recipients. Iraqreceive Soviot aid shortly after thethe monarchy in Since then, thebeen the predominant supplier, furnishing
illion in military equipmentsome ten times the amount furnished by the United States. Intense anti-Western sentiment in Syria in thes provided the USSR with an opportunity to initiate military aid there. Although Syria has continued to receive small amounts of aid from the West, including negligible quantities from the United States, its armed forces are now predominantly equipped with Soviet arms, amounting to0 million.
the second largest Sovietwas favored with large blocks ofaid during the first half of theSukarno was following anforeign policy. Since thccoupoviot military aid tohas ceased.
9. The major inflow of Soviet military aid to India came in response to the Chineso Communist attack in India, which now ranks fourth among the non-Communist recipients of Soviet military aid, has received to date0 million. US aid, by comparison, has amounted to about one-fourth of that total and, since the Indo-Pakistan waras been curtailed by the embargo on shipments of lethal weapons.
fain Ing portion of Soviet aid has been scattered amongountries, Sovu;i ,iiti to Airica, notably inregion where there have beenesire not only to erodeinfluence in the area but also to offset of Chinese military aid. In theseand economically unsettled countries,apparently feels that military aid is theway to gain influence. Total aid toequatorial African clients6 hasaveraging only aboutillion per country.
Communist Recipients
North Vietnam has received an4 billion, or half of the arms aid supplied to Communist countries* by the USSR. Soviet aid to Northarge scale began6 andeak level of0 million With the suspension of US bombingorth Vietnam's requirements forammunition and other armaments fell off, and deliveries from the USSR declined to an0 million last year.
Soviet military aid to North Korea6 .has amounted to an0 million. During the, thereeavy inflow of Soviet arms to North Korea to replace lossesduring tho Korean war and to modernize tho North Korean forces. This aid virtually stopped, as differences between Moscow and Pyongyang developed in tho wake of the Soviet-Chinese rift. Aid relations wore resumed, however, innd the USSR concluded, an agreement to providequantities of modern equipment. In tho past three,SSR has delivered an5 million in armsan average ofillion per year.
? Prior6 the USSR supplied China with arms aid valued at somewhat more 0 million. This aid, provided under credits repayableen-year period, has been fully repaid by China.
received most of its estimatedin Soviet military aid within theyears after Castro came to power inthen, Soviet arms deliveries toonsiderably smallerear, but fluctuatingfrom year to year.
Composition of Soviet Military Aid to Free World Less Developed Countries-
Equipment
arms supplied to lessgenerally have been competitive inand design to those supplied by themuch of the materiel delivered in theof the program consisted of items madeSoviet arms modernization, there is nothe USSR shunted shoddy equipment to thecountries. Much of the equipment,asame directly from Sovietin new condition. Over the years, newhas made up an increasing share of Sovietas the USSR has responded to theof tho less developed countries foradvanced weapons. The cost of modern,is considerably greater than that of The supersonic'i-7. for(in trade prices! frr-iwith only for the older To date, roughly two-thirds of thesupplied consists of items which are inin the Soviet armed forcesarge portioncurrent production. As shown in Tablealfvalue of major weapons supplied by the USSRof aircraft, mo*st of which have gone to
the Middle East. Naval equipment accounts for about one-fifth of the total and was delivered mainly to Indonesia, India, and the Arab countries. Land armaments such as tanks and artillery also account for about one-fifth, while missiles (mostly surface-to-air missiles and surface-to-surface cruiserepresent the remainingercent of tho total value of major weapons delivered.
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Table 3
Major Soviet Weapons Supplied to the Less Developed Countries of the Free World
Percent
by Value
Land
*
enerally the DSSR has effectivelyits military aid commitments. Delivery
schedules normally are met, and the USSR hasa willingness and ability to respondurgent needs, as illustrated by the massiveto the Middle East in7 and theair deliveries to Nigeria. Problemsin the use of Soviet equipmentbeen those associated with the loweducational levels of recipient nations andpoor use and maintenance ofproblems have ledigh demand forand spare parts which, in turn, hasperpetuate the initial anas relationshipUSSR and its clients. Tills dependencyonly in those countries currently receivingamount of their arms aid frombut also inwhich
have lona since sninendodfrom1 the
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Technical Assistance
technical assistance to manyloss developed countries has gonetbe requirements for instruction in theof Soviot weapons. umber ofthe Arab states, the USSR has madeeffort to generally upgrade thoof the local armed forces. 60 Soviet technicians (in terms ofhave been dispatched to the lessand0 military personnelareas have been trained in the USSR. Thoof .this assistance, virtually all of whichpaid by the recipient countries In cashs estimated0 million.
By contrast, US technical assistance is provided free to countries receiving DS arms aid.
the past several years the flow oftechnicians to less developed countriosFree World, particularly to the Middle Fast,sharply both in absolute number and Into arms deliveries. At the endSoviot technicians were in the less double the number6 and moro than
On another occasion, the USSR used its spare parts leverage for even stronger concessions; in3 the USSR forced Iraq to abandon its anti-Communist propaganda campaign and to reduce its suppression of local Communists by withholding spare parts and
he exception is Indonesia, which was provided technical assistance and military training on long-term credit.
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five timoa the number hore were approximatelyechnicians for each million dollars worth of arms aid supplied, compared with only five and seven technicians per million dollars0espectively. The United States, by comparison, had onlyilitary technicians in the less developed countries (excluding Vietnam)7atio ofen per million dollars of aid. The considerably larger Soviet presence reflects in part the disparity in levels of technical skill between major US and Soviet arms recipients. The Soviet ratios vary from around four technicians per million dollars of aid in India, whichevelopedestablishment, to almoster million in Afghanistan. The 3harp rise in recent periods is more directly attributable to Moscow's endeavors in the Arab states to raise the quality of training and to improve tho maintenance and tactical use ofareas in which the June war exposed glaring weaknesses. Over the, the average number of technicians per million dollars of aid in Syria wasnd in the At present, tho UAR hosts thc largest contingent of Soviet. The UAR, Syria, and Iraq together account for more than half of the Soviet military technicians in all less developed countries.
Prices and Terms of Soviet Anas Aid to Leas Developed Free World Countries
18. Soviet arms aid to the less developedgenerally has been provided at low prices and on generous credit terms. The list prices of most types of Soviet arms have been substantially below those charged by the west.* Moreover, the USSR usually offers substantial discounts from tho list prices. To date, such discounts have accounted forercent ofbillion in Sovietaid delivered to the less developed countries.
* Soviet prices, for example, rangeercent lower in the caseedium tank to roughly SO percent lower in the case of an advanced fighter aircraft. On the' other hand, prices of 3urface-to-air missiles and email arms and ammunition are about the same as Western prices.
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Theseredicated in part on ability to pay and in part on political favoritism, have varied from virtually nothing in the case of Indian the case of Yemen. The USSR, however, almost invariably has refrained from making outright gifts of arms, in contrast to US militaryf which has been in the form of grants.
addition to price inducements, theoffered attractive credit terms: repaymentto tenrace period of onoercent interest annually. Moreof the Soviet agreements, by value, haverepayments in commodities, rather than
Debt Obligations and Repayments
arms clients haveillion, of which they have0 million;alf dozen aidappear to have fallen behind on their Moreover, Indonesia and thc UARthe major debtorshave made no paymentsespectively. It seemsthat any repayment of Indonesia'sof more0 millionnterest) will be forthcoming. Only one countryis fully paid .up, and throo othersand Moroccohave repaidercent ortheir debts. About two-thirds of the debt paid
to date has come from Afghanistan, Algeria, India, and the UARcountries which repay in commodities or local currencies. Only Uganda, Indonesia, Iraq, Syria, and Morocco have made hard currency payments.
USSR has, as ar-rule, been generouspayments. Nevertheless, repaymentsyears have Increased somewhat and,lower delivories, have resulted in smallerof military aid from the USSR. 5 million were one-third of aidcomparod withercent6
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Outlook for Soviet Military Aid
military aid deliveries during theyears probably will not exceed recent levelsmillion annually. Aid shipments to Northwill decline from the current level of about
illion if the fighting subsides and particularlyettlement is reached. Soviet aid to North Korea and Cuba together, consisting essentially of arms re-supply and modernization, probably will remain0ear.
level of military aid toseems unlikely to exceed the0ear. Existing armswith the major clientsIndia, Iran, andstatesand the supply of spare parts,and equipment to other currentubstantial flow of arms. Mbst ofnew Free World clients which Moscowduring the next several years, however,will be small states with only limited needs
for military
general character of Sovietto Free World countries probably willessentially unchanged in the next fewrefusing to supply nuclear-weapons orthe USSR probably will furnish anproportion of modern sophisticatedndighters/ guided-missileand surface-to-air lais.siles for the lesscountries. The,;le^er..of "Sovietis not likely to decrease over theyears, because-of'the demands generatedintroduction of newer/'moire1'complex weapons.
For its part, the.USSR,appears interested inmore advisers and technicians to insure more effective use of equipment."
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