Intelligence Report
Office of Resources, Trade, and Technology
eographic Profileotential Crisisk
A Research1 OCT W4
Intelligence Report
Office of Resources, Trade, and Technology
a Potential Crisis Areal
eographic Profile
A Research Paper
otential
Geographic ProSfc d< miiArea|Ji|
Sa?SpssaSApsS* mu used tu due fmen
with an ethnic compositionistory of turmoil similar to that of Rwanda, is showing signs of renewal ethnic tension and mayresh wave of killings and large-scale population movements. If this occurs, it would add to ihe already large population of refugees and displaced persons:
Since independenceurundi has been periodically plagued by ethnic tensions between the majority Hunts and minority Tutsis;urundi am have been killed, aad thousands have Bed die country.
illion displaced Bururxhans aad Rwandan refugees are nowhumanitarian assistance within Burundi.
Civil strife and drought in the past year have reduced Burundi's foodby it leastercent; (his willetric tons of food aid throughnddditionetlpopulation movements would Incrtast dependency on food aid and Alt mm the agricultural tec-lor, asump/ton of
Although Burundieil-developed transportation network by African standards, if is already under heavy use by humanitarian relief efforts in the region:
' Logistic problems and the coming rainy teason win challenge flitting, and any new, relief efforts. In addition, Burundi, communications net* wortUeould most Ukety be disruptedajor outbreak of violence.
la the kwg term, Burundi faces numerous problems thai will requireassistance if the economy Is to keep pace with population growth:
AgriCMUurals lereUng off; yields wUihesre to increase ifo keep up with populate* growth. Ucr ruling deru^ndiost Imperrtosd umrxefurtherBurundi'i remaining
Like Kwindi. Burundi continue* to be troubled by ethnic tensions between the majority Hut us and the minority Tutus. Indeed,njor outbreaks ot Inierethnic violence hive occurred fix times. Ihe mini recent of these3 snd precipitated Urge-scale population dsslocauoGs thatciponie from International humanllar-iin assistance organizations sY^H
Recent tension, centered between Burundi's Tutu dominated military snd the Hutu government, miy eruptew wave of violence. This would derail relief efTotti in the area, produce new refugees and displaced persons, *rxJ disrupt Burundis agricultural economy because most of the displaced wouldbe farmersself-sufficient Inbecome increasingly dependent on internaiional aid. Because Bujumbura already serve* as ihe hub for relief efforts In tbeajor Increase in the number ot people in need mightthe transportation systemB
Population Characteristics
Buiundiopulation ofillion people as ofccording to Ihe US Census Bureau's Internaiional Programs Center. Thes uscrcasia^ateercera per year, and the high fertilityof chitdbcahng age average nearly seven childrensustain growth lor some time. Population densiryper squire kilometerndeed, because of ihe violence and flight from Rwanda, Burundi hasits northern neighbor as Africa's most densely populated country. Someercent of thelive In rural
ercent of the urban
. are Onega,gon.
Ethnic Rivalry
long been plagued by ethnic tensions between the llutui and the Tutsn. Hutui eompriteercent of (he population, Tuuis make upercent, and theercent are Twaa--poyftlvthe last survivors of the aboriginal
re primarily farmers whose migrated into Burundi BOOears ago. The Tutiii are pastoral people who apparently migrated Ethiopia several hundred vears after the Hutui.
of the wealthin use funds of the Tuuis, and for severalthey, much like feudal lords, granted the use of cattle and land to Hutu cultivators In exchange for services and goods Beginning Inerman and then Belgian colonial practices continued lo keep the Huiuseudal state
Ethnic conflict hat occurred frequentlythnic conflict led to the killing of anurundians and the Right of thousands so neighboring countries. More recently, the3 coup attempt by elements of themlHtary led to the deaths of Burundi's firstesident and more0 Honrs andcreased moreefugees its Rwanda. Tanxania. and Zaire: andJntcmally displacedillion Buiundians^^H
Despite the pronouaced ethnic differences between the Hums arid Tuuis. some similwttie* exist. The mijoniy of both groups speak the two officialandwell as Kiswahill. Both are also predominantly Christian:ercent of the population is Roman Catholic,ercent i* Protestant. Most of the remaining one-third practice traditional Africanmall number areimiB
The Population In Need
in Muyinga, where Rwandan re
Within the country,o Iand displaced Burundians arein need of assistance. An estimatedpcoons arc In camps, and dispersed in
r_ nd Kimndo. which arere located. As of earK
during the October IW coup attempt have returned; these are probably in greatest need because tbey have no land to farm or secure place to0 Burundian refugees remain inre in Zaire,re in Rwint'
lo addition to the displaced Burundians,waitdanrefngecs are currently in Burundi,
jKt-liling to Ibe TM stmnirf. local food supplies. Al tbe bejjisrung of the Rwandan crisis inUsis fled fromjnindi; most of these have
RwsndareTare mostly ihrtus who (led in mid-July when (be Rwandan Patriotic Fronl captured Kigali and the southern town of Butarc. Piece* for0 spread out along tbe northern border, all are in llumaaUariam Relief Efforts
Many nongovt mmenlol organisations (NGOt) are working in Burundi lo assist the large refugee and displaced populations. UN/ICR. the lead coordinator for refrgees. works with several HGOs to provide comprehensive humanitarian aid The World Food Program (WFP) plans resources and logisticand the International Federation of Out Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (tFRC) is In charge of camp mtmgtmenl and food distribution la addition. Medietas Sans Frontiers (MSF)from Belgium and France are responsible for providing health and to-Italian services, and Coop-erosion for American Relief Everywhere (CARE) is providing transport and distribution of food and olher goods. The Oxford Committee for Famine Relief (OX fAMf. International Action Against(AJCF% and the Burundi Red Cross Society. among othen. art also providing assUianceWtWtX
For the displaced Burundians. the situation isThen Is no coordinating agency responsible for overall camp management. In addition, while the WFP distributes food with the help of Catholic Organizations for Charitaltle and Social Action (CAftfTASL, there Is relatively Utile aid available to the displaced populations, according to USA ID Some nonfood aid is provided by other HC*
BOsvefogc* and refugee populations are in poor health because of inadequateack of potable drinking water, and disease. Someercent of tncjm!acks adecrosie sewage ireat-
ofthelkopie have access io sewet systems In addition, aboutercent of Burundi's population lacks access to safe drinking
esult,
tiseaseslf all endemic discasesaV
(Bvi hlubereulosiseopleercent more than in other Sob-Saharan African
Violence continues to interrupt relief deliveries to Out
displaced persons and refugees. Incidents In mid-August caused UNUCFt relief uneken ta KIrundo
Province to temporarily leave
Ourlr workers was fatally
UN HOI feels Us Jab Is becoming mere,provinces: Its biggest fear Is dustcamps will get caught up Ingoncern
that continued ridfPhcr in Bujumbura might hall food convoys to southwestern,
Old iZailrMB
bexielt'
us}'
percent of the urban population car-virus. Diarrhea, hepatitis, and cholera are alto common causes of illness and death. Further, more, the inlamivehigh. Malaria, diarrhea, and respiratory infections remain the biggest probieatswjdjintheand displaced persons cirnp<fl jlMMBManaansssstsssIdeaths ire comparatively lo>^
Agriculture and Pood
Agriculture is the most important sector inlthough food production haskept up with rapid populationone of the few counuie* in Sub-Saharaa Africausually self-suf&ocru inwin beillion metricpercent below averagr^B HH _
eatt* '
ethnic clashes reportedlyuarter of the couo try's tmall landhoUen to leave their farms and dis-mptrd the planting of the lust seasonespite good rainfall and the return of some farmers during the second season, production remained significantly below normal because many farmers remainedand because there were shortiees of sned* and other input*!
mi
ildbencaroormal .been planted. Nevcr-Wrundi will need through ihe end of
Burundi'* climaic allows for the year-roundof various food crops. Beans, bananas, andarc the principal crops, ajjj sweet potatoes, corn, and torch urn arc also
beans and com are usually planted in October/ November and arc harvested in January/February closely followed by the planting of sweet potatoes
' AsjicuKibt pro" ides mbout Halt the (oanuy'i Gnu rwjut
Prorixi(ODPV-oar oitheiharaUit janercent Ol the labor (o
and sorghum, which are harvested in lunc/7uty.crops are grownhort third season between July and October. Bananas aad cassavarown throughout the year arsd provide some measure of food security duringled to their increased cultivation following several dry spells in
ity and maTTel ability of bananas Stem immtheir widespread use in making banana
The agricultural sector Is dominated by small land Solders who cujpvate food crops raottlv for their own
consumption.
are moreillion family farms in
ectare in size Aboutercent of the land area is cultivable, and virtually all ofincluding many steepcropped. Most farming Is done by traditional low-yield method* using primitivehoes, and machetes Women do most of the farming, while men lend then the agricultural heartland of central and western Burundi, erosion and loss of soil fertility have become the biggest threat to agricultural pro doctiviry. The Belgians implemented programs lo build contour ridges and terracing to control torrential runoff, but since Independence much of this work has fallen into disrepair. Chemical fertilizer! are used infrequently because most fanners cannot afford them. Manure is not commonly used either because had* are usually grazed away from fields, and manure is not collected)
Fish are an important component of the Burundianons fish were caughtith abbotercent com-ihg from Lake Tanganyika Production decreased Ihrough the latepsrtlyheap Import* fromit hat picked ap la recent yean. Most of the caacfa is sold fresh dairy In the central market in Bujumbura, and the rest Is dried andthroughout the country. Lakes In the north.
1 Althrwj* ineasant as tyttstwb of wealth andeno*ormijo source of food or Wome.ome TOof the <ut,oaj livenstulialrferlin she Oetobo
yl.
leading cause ol high mortallry rate* In refuge* and diaplaotd camps.
wm
5rct
Climate and Terrain
Burundi occupiesquare kilometers (km) on the Great East African Plateau and Is roughly the size of Maryland. Its wet season usually begins in late September and lasts until May.average sis toays per month and account for most of the ramfrdl; the heaviest rains, dut'wg March and April, occurays amomdi The dry season lasts from June to September^^j^
The country has three natural geographic zones:
Imbo plain. Tropical and BOO meters above sea level, this plain stretches along the eastern shore of Lake Tanganyika and north to the Rutiti River valley along the Great Rift Valley. Temperatures average
. and annual rainfallillimeters (mml
Great Rift Valley mountain. Rising steeply to form the divide between the Congo and Nile Riven, these mountains extend from south to north andaverage less thori&kmin width. The ridges rangeeters, witheters. Temperatures average. and rainfaDmm tn ihe upper elevations endW mm in the north near the Rwanda border
J eastern pli'.caus .The plateau, there almost half the population Itvei. rangeeters above sea level. Average temperatures rangend rainfallmm. The plateaus slant toward Ihe easternwhen hotter aiul drier savanna conditionstemperatures here averagelo, and {all totalso slightly more
which arc being stocked with fry. shouldbecome more important producers in the future.vjh^
Cashcoffee and some tea, cotton, andfor most exports. If renewedresulted in major disruptions In the agricultural
sector, foreign exchange earnings would behas occurred In Rwanda. Cash cropson both state-run plantations and aboutsmall farms in Burundi. The governmentBank and other donor assistance, hasIn the development of the coffee industrythe last two decades, placingg productivity and quality. As ahas increased by'more thanercentvirtually all Ihe coffee grown now Isarabica. whichoon the world
: exports accounted forercent of li:niDion in foreign i
in mb
Even if (he current crisis subsides, Burundi 'asector will have lo overcome several obstacles so keep pace with populabon growth. Became there is little idle cultivable land, future production
1 will have to come from improved yields,
lis will require better sTute of fertilaabs, improved cropping techniques, and control ltd grazing of livestock. In addition, the government will need toood-sssirkeiiog systemrrmetrri evict ral extension services to small holders
Table
Burundi Estfauied Agricultural1
3
Burundi Cash Crop Production
and Mineral Production
Burundi'* industry is largely oriented towardof goods for local consumption. LocatedIn Bujumbura, industry contributed onlyerora^KOV COP'^PJHtiH^ Val ^kp.riculturalbeer and toll anna, production and augarIhe sector; cotton cloth, cigarettes, snd ether con-lumer goods are alsooffee-processing industry prepares coffee for export. Most industrial facilities are operating well below capacity, according to an academic study. High transportationmall dome tt ic market, fluctuating world prices, and
a Lack of educated personnel constrain Burundi'* industrial growth
The mining indtrstry, although small, could becomeimportant contributor lo the national economy. Production is currently limited to small amount* of tin and gold, a* wellew locallyevertheless, large depoaiut of nickel with associated copper, cobalt, and plaiittum-group
world priori
1 The country al or* lime [inducedthe rare-carat anoeralut andWan.loawe of trees*
Ii
Transportation Infrastructure
s the liufa for humanitarian relief efforts Tor needy Ilurunthans and Rwandan* in Ihe country, a* well at In southwestern Rwanda and eastern Zaire, Burundi's relatively well-devcJoped roadh^tates aid distribution, but it has no rail-roar!
cm highway system includestm with bituminous surfaces,mm with i
are in fak-to-good cood.uon.rom Bujumbura west to Zaire, north to Rwanda, snd east tomompleted bv the Chir.csc in
VaanaanaaBaaaVaaM
f south. At the sameetwork ofreaches all areas of the country. These rural roads probably will be. the weakest link in aid distribution,idespread humanitarian crisis occur; this is especially the case in the rainiest months of Match and April, when
Moat bridges are short, one-lane structure* with grots load capacitiesetric tons. Pre*aboc aicd Bailey-rype steel bridges an also in ante'
: capacities ot upridges oa the Chinese-buik roads are of the reinforced concrete-deckspan* placed on abutnrarts. Vertical
oads have bndrHon these routes usually have low capacities. The highway system has one known ferry crossing and no knownM
unwayeters andsuitable, with some restrictions, forircraft. In addition,the only field designated as an airport of entry.other airfields have virtually no supportc^aerommodatc only light orutjlirv-tyne
The port atcrjuntry'i onlyport on Lakethe center of the area's reliefid eommocboes are routed by rail serosa Tanzania from tbe port at Dar es Salaam to Kigomaand then barged up Lake Tanganyika to ihe port. The portinimum draft ofsesers at its dredged entrance1 alongside I
Limited offloading and storagestockpiling, and the lack of transportduring the harvestanjLfucl hampers drliver^and cross-bordermf
i early September, manpower andmetric-ton backlog of food in Kigoma andjessne-week supply of
foodir
*ec*et tbe urban areas and haa some 8JXT0 telephonelineeridenu. Almowercent of telephone subscribers arc in Bujumbura.tence break out, the network will probably be severely disrupted, as occurred hn Rwanda Through radio relay links, satellite, some wire, and some radio communications, the National Office ofprovides domestic, Iniernationalj telegraph, and telex aerviccsf
Sees*
medium wave, and VHEjVM in trench. Kirundi. and Kiswatnli] The topography interfere! withpecJall] in central Bunxri Province. In addition to Ihcstations, the extremist wing of ihe Burundi Democratic Frontobile station on the Rwanda Zaire border.'
bjiational Tele virionnewt daily in Kirundi and French, reaching someercent ofonmdiana0clcvisic
Fuel and Energy
Someercent of the subsistence sectorf all households rely on wood and charcoal for
jfugeeand
disptacWpopuIalions are also dependent on ftre-wood for fuel. This situation will hasten Burundi's already rapid deforestation Forests have dwindled to only Tjatceni ctfthejandjrta en -
1 Aboutof the forest areand the rest is
protected natural forest:
Hydro power is the main source ofhas no petroleum or natural gas reserves.abouiercent of the electricity wasby hycVoelectricplanisai MuBcre andHun
smaller hyn is. and dieseprovide the remainder. The country hasof generating capacity. Tbe largestsouth fromolines, the remainder of (he network islinci* The state electricitynow supplies electricity tonop
br'WcaSc'ess. fewtrtiuj^Sperccotof Burundi's population has access to electricil)
* For ^apon ofkV Ana arc common In Ike Uniiol Sulci. krvtbiinalvr uiwm fftrnifhouildwtwiM
in
Original document.
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