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Lebanon: Implications, oi'eath
Cuba: More Interior Ministry Officials Arrested
New Prime Minister-Proposed
USSR: Congress Likely To9 Pact
USSR: Shevardnadze'l Surprise Slop in Iran
China-USSR: Scheduling Talks on Reducing Forces
Kuwait-USSR: Military' Exchanges
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USSR: Untikcl< To Soften Position on Afghan
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Hostages Held in Lebanon as of9
Xante/Occupation
of Abduction
Trout Croup
/{esiu-xei
.
Anderson Middle East Bureau Chief. AP
5 West Beirul
Jihad
Sutherland Dean. Americaneirut
3 West Beirul
Jihad
Reed Director, Lebanese International School
6 Wear Beirut
Justice Organization
Cicippio Deputy Comptroller. KUB
6 West Beirut
Justice Organization
Tracy Itinerant write*
6
Justice Organization
St cen Professor. Beirut University College
?
Jihad for the Liberation of Palestine
Polhtll Professor. Beirut University College
7
Jihad for the Liberation of Palestine
(Jesse) Turner Professor. Beirut Untversiu College
?
Jihad for the Liberation of Palestine
Hi-Mann
McCarthy Journalist
6
held by Hizballah
Waite
Anglican Church envoy
7
held b> Hizballah
Keenan Irish teacher
6
held by Hizballah
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of lliggins's Death
Lieutenant Colontl ttiggint's apparent execution underscores the threat ic other US hostages held by
A caller from ihc Organization for thc Oppressed of thcHizballah frontBritish hostage Terry Waite will jc executed0 EOT today if Hizballah cleric Shaykh Ubayd is not released by Israel. Another Hizballah front group, the Revolutionary v Justice Organization, has threatened to kill US hostage Joseph
CicippioDT today if Ubavd is not released by that time.
Israeli'press reports Ubayd has confessed toole in the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and Higgins and toother terrorist . acts. Tel Aviv publicly offered yesterday to swap the Hizballah
captives and all Shia detainees held by Israel for three Israeli soldiers and alt foreign hostages in Lebanon, but some Israeli officials are skeptical lhat Hizballah or Tehran would agreeostage exchange. Synan press, meanwhile, condemned the murder of Higgins asurprise and an -
sflsafWajB- Hizballah wants the US and Israel to see Higgins's death as thenrsi step in an escalating response to Ubayd's abduction. Tel Aviv probably still hopes that Ubayd's capture affords them greater leverage^in negotiating the release of the three Israelis believed held by Shia radicals. Hizballah has not expressed an interest in negotiating for Ubayd bul so far has avoided antagonizing Tel Aviv by threatening the Israeli captives. Despite protestations of outrage. Syria almost certainly will not jeopardize its strong ties to Iran and working relationship with Hizballah in Lebanon by actively assisting lhe US to free the hostages or turnlngablindeyeiriUSrnilitary retaliation for thc Higgins
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Topt
More li'i,n
Catiro'l detention of farmer Interior Minister Abrantes mayore extent.,e, and riskier, crackdown on eorrur:ion.*tMtSkl.
Four former Interior Ministry officers,been bfor negligences corruption, and illegal currencyaccused of cronyism
whichsaid toe hampered ihe oflicial investigation into the Ministry's role in the Ochoa narcotics and corruption scandal. In addition.Interior Ministryere demoted to colonel and retired, all bui one of them were reportedly dismissed from their
government also announced thc detention of the former director of an enterprise associated with ihc Min_isir> ihat deals in hard Currency.
thatoreign firms have been ordered to close their local offices, in pari to tighicn theuban! Intorcjgii iac'pgU"
Abrantcs's arrest probably resulted fromin ihc past month and is an embarrassment toAbranies was dismissed in June. Havana noicd ihai hethc leadership's trusi and citcem. Many of iheor retired had already lost their positions,hreat to lhe regime. The military remainsby ihc anticorruption
The toughening of Castro's purje of lhe Interior Ministry and his actions againsi foreign companies indicate that thc regime has been surprised by the extent of corruption. Castro's apparent intolerance of his subordinates' illicit activity may reflect his determination lo preserve Cuban "socialism" regardless of thc reforms undertaken by other Communist countries. His actions, however,isk defections among those in the bureaucracy who believe the rules of the game have suddenly been changed.'
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AND. New Prime Minister Prupuscd
p
leaderyesterd "otoce. Gen. Czcsttiw fir
two iV lite
nam
"ten bod
com
New Communist parts Presidentandidate for prime mi Kiszc/ok proved Im effask will be to. lower house, the new gt environment
ices mm
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ll have to parcel out ministries loparty's coaliiion partnerstrengthen theSolid an t> is not likely to participate in the cabinetKiizctak probabl> hopes his good relations with mostleaders will gain him opposition support forand economic reform measures. Most oppositionhowever, are not likely to support painful austeritymaj face wide-scale worker unrest over food priceprices could triple while adjustments to worker incomeseven if workers stay calm now. enterprises may be pressedadditional pay raises that could overwhelmc k
USSR: Congress Likely To9 Pact
A commission of the Congress of People's Deputies set up to study thc Molotov-Ribbentropll publish ils findings this week.
In conclusions President as approved, the commission will urge Ihe
luar.ia
UI I"
'rent
Gorbachev Congress toecognize that the St0 violated init Politburoalks on Ihe status ol geopolitical and den
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The report, which thc Congress .will.have to approve officially ihts fall,ajor victory for Baltic nationalists, who will USC i< to press their case lor independence.'
nope to reinstate0hich the OSSR recognized Lithuania's independence. Gorbachev has said firmly he opposes secession but apparently hopes to preempt radical nationalist demands in lhc Baltic region bv showing he is willing to renegotiate the republics' status
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I >SH. Shesardnadze's Surprise Slop in lun
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The Soviet Foreign Minister, returning home from iheon Cambodia in Paris, stopped in Tehran ian Foreign Minister Vciayat Ajf
alsss%aalRag(aga1>cstcrday that talks withould cover Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq peace talks, and bilateral relations. In February Shevardnadze became the highest level Soviet official to visit Tehranhe current visit follows Iranian Assembly Speaker Rafsanjanis election as President and Shevardnadze's meeting in Paris with the US Secretary of State and coincides with the stan of US-Soviet talks on Afghanistan and Iran in Stockholm
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rnding the Foreign Minister to Tehran for thcin five months is an unusual move b> Moscow and ma>part, eagerness to strengthen relations with the newly electedsiatc. Tehran may seek assurances that Moscow will noi yieldpressure againsi selling arms to Iran and that it will consultbefore working out any deals with the US onihc Iran-Iraq peace talks. Shevardnadze probably will briefon his talks with Secretary Baker. Tehran is sure loSoviets to support.its position in ihe UN Securitywith Iraq and may discuss details of Ihe SosictVela van' may brief Shevardnadze on his recent visit
ei
Islamabad to discuss Afghanistan '
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CHINA-USSR: Scheduling Talks on Reducing Forces
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ister Shevardnadze and Chinese Foreignn agreed on Sunday while attending the conference on Cambodia in Paris to have diplomatic and military experts meet in Moscow this Novemhwr to discuss force reductions along thc Sino-Soviet border.
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In their first meeting since the ovict summit in May, the two ministers also agreed toourth round of border talks in Beijing this October. JMHL
, The Soviets and the Chinese appear to haveoncerted effort in thc past two months to ensure that the receni turmoil in China does not disrupt their new normalized relations. .The Chinesead agreed in principle to the force-reduction talks before the summit but resisted Soviet efforts toate for the first meeting. They may have been encouraged lo move ahead because Moscow is rapidly completing its promised miliiary drawdown in Mongolia. The talks are not likely to progress quickly bceausc thc Chinese military' distrusts the Soviets and there are many complexities to working out an agreement. But Beijing may believe such talks will help force the West to end its embargo on arms sales to China. The Soviets have longialogue wiih Beijing on miliiary issues and probably hope thell leadroader military relationship.)
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KUtt All -USSR: Military Exchanges
had signed a
Kuwait last week publiclv discounted press rci new agreement to buv Soviet arms afterv Soviet first Deoutv Defense Minister Kocr
eo
aciliUjiarid meetings with
said onhai the visit was
intended to enhance bilateral miliiarv relations^
is using the exchanges to reaffirm its nonaligned band strengthen its hand in negotiations.withsuppliers, including fj
sides probably renewed existing Soviet
9
auiwii tig
.and Moacowalmost certainly orlcred the Kuwaitis hew weapons systems. The Soviets also probably sought to allay Kuwailienewed Sovict-liaman-militan-cooperation.*
Infcricf
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polnical mr.*crick Hon* Yel'isin. four oilici reform figutci named io headeoalilion in Congress of People's. raises Vcl'lsi.njroup* legislative program as vet unfocused(3)
Some Soifet railwav workers in Russia. Ukraine threatening strike over working, livingegions' industry, agriculture depend heavily on. Moscow likely to take hard line if talks do not)
Marshal Akhromcycv. NATO Military Committee head Alicnbcrg in Soiiet TV interview stressed defensive nature of alliances, .possible militarya> reassure Soviet public of West's peaceful intcniions during unilateral defense cuts.'
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oviet Komsomol central committee plenum last weekend had sharp debate, littleet up committee on June secession of Lithuanian branch, possible decentraiizaiWn_rowing internal factionalism likely.*,
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Judges on strike in Mcdcllin. Colombia's second-largest city, threatening to resign enemanding more governmentudge investigating righlwing paramilitary groups assassinated last Frida
nationalized US-owned electrical company last week because of alleged overdue debt, failure to make new investment, other moves asove legal so far. protracted wrangling over compensation likely..
cciitnuctf
Au|iMI IVIV
Bank Palestinians, including PLO. increasingly using Israeli shekel to Jordanianinar nowercent8 ycjrcnd. confidence in Jordanian Government. cconom> declining. Amman increasingly blaming Tel AvivJ
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p
weekend South Korea postponed talks with North Korea aimed at family. public contacts at least temporarily suspended to protest Pyongyang's dealings with South Koreanay resume later.
any prolonged illness likely to create power vacuum, maj encourage aniiregtmc activities djansaasv
Special Ana lysis
'lo Soften Position on Afghan Sett lenient
VltWg and Proposal*
t Dcniocrai the restihi Najibullal of ncgotia Najibullal or limited Hikmatsa
Since its military withdrawal. Moscow has continued to advocate the measures toolitical solution that General Secret arv Gorbachev proposed at thc UN inutorTof arms supplies to all thc Afghan groups, an international and an inlra-Afghan dialogueew .
hat the present rcgftTie mustovernment and that thc People's tan (PDPA) mustlace in victs have suggested^ihat President cadcrs could be removed in thc courseew have hinted that lie panackage that alsoxtremists, notably Gulbuddin
continued
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Thc Soviets have recently stressed, however, thnt demands for ihc removal ofNajibullsih as ihc price of ceiling negoiiaiiom under wav arc unacceptable. Fim Deputy Foreign Minister Vorontsisv has dismissed this possibility in several interviews I
for So<iei Concessions
Doubts about the regime's long-term staying power and impaiicnce at .the Burden of supporting ii might prompt Moscow to move more quickly toettlement on track, perhaps by replacing Najibullah oreutral transitional governmcni.
lie vet a
inueo militaryesistance disunity, and international pressure may soon erode Pakistani and US resistanceealing wiih the Kabul regime. At long as the regime'socs noi deteriorate. Moscow appears committed to kccpjniv Kabul's hand as strong as possible for ihe near future.*
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Original document.
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