iLooi)
Lai ellipses CouacD
EXECUTIVE BRIEF
- 80
Republic of Yemen: Prospects for Unity
The nevr united Kepoblic of Yemenetter Lbin even chance of succeeding. Senior leaders In both North and South Yemen believe unity will boost their ailing economies and advance their political Interests. If tbe onion dissolves. North Yemeni leader Salih probably would maintain bis bold on power, but South Yemen could experience serious instability.
SECRET NOFORN
About Unity
The uni5cau"oo effort-initialed lasi year by North Yemen-is genuine and so far oo track. Although North and South Yemen have proposed unity on several occasionshis is toe firs: time an actual merger has been announced and the first steps implemented. Leaders of both couniries-panicularlv South Yemen Secretary Genera] Bidb-see integration as the only practical means of remedying their increasingly difficult economic situations. South Yemeni officials overcame their initial reluctance last fall, in large pan because they recognized that Moscow was no longer willing to support them.
Leaders in both Yemcns probably believe that unification would enhance their ability to develop their oil poteotial-their oil fields lie primarily in the Ul-deSned border area-and attract foreignith average annual per capita incomes00 respectively. North and South Yemen are two of the poorest and least developed countries in, the world. Both have perilously low foreign exchange reserves and have recorded sizeable current account deficitsxcept for petroleum-^together they nowarrels per dayjthey have few natural resources or domestic sources of capital. Prospects for petroleum development in Yemen are good,ubstantial increase in oil revenues is not lixery until atZ
In addition, both North Yemen's President Salih and South Yemen's General Secretary Bidh believe unity will further their personal ambitions. Salih, tbe chairman of the United Yemen's Presidential Council, intends, toegional leader.:
The New Republic of Yemen
Aden and Sanaa's announcement onay of their merge/ into the Republic of Yemenmonth during which the new regime will try to integrate ministries, economies, andive-member presidential council, including Salih and Bidh along wiih two senior North Yemeni leaden and one from the South, will negotiate the details. The new leaden will use the transition to prepare the public for fuR union and to isolate opponents. Prime Minister Abu Bakr al-'Attas (South Yemeni President) willmember cabinet composed of numerous leading figures from both North and South Yemen.
Merger Steps Already Undertaken
Sanaa is named the seat of government. Aden is named the economic capital; the government will use Aden's refinery and port facilities: Both currencies are accepted.
The new regime has consolidated its diplomatic services and intends to honor all bilateral and multilateral agreements. North Yemen Foreign Minister Abdul Karim al-Iryani will serve as foreign minister of the new ngvne, l
Aden and Sanaa have exchanged
an security battalions, agreed to withdraw military forces from both cities, and committed to merge
ilitary and seatrity forces. s- .
Yemeni Petroleum Potential (See Map)
The two Yemenseological basin wish potentially large petroleum resources. North Yemen has atillion barrels in proven reserves end South Yemen's Shabwqh region mayillion barrels of recoverable oH The Joinlauare-kilometeris pan of the same basin is Hkefy to be another major resource.
Parts of the basin remain unezphntd and construction of facilities is largely incomplete
m Additional commercial fields are being identified in the Marib area of northern Yemen.
Exploratory drilling in the Joint investment Area is scheduled to begin soon, but it will take time for fields to be developed and facilities to be constructed.
The first three or four months will be critical to the success of the unificatioD effort The new regime must move quickly to coopt or suppress domesac opponents and to consolidate tbe Arab recognition it received at the:
Salih and Bidfa pressed for an early unity announcement-oefore integration details were worked out-to erpedite what promised toengthy process and undercut opponents to the merger. The rapid pace of change bas caught most off-guard, but domestic opposition, and other problems, are likely to mount.
Domestic Challenges
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: