Expect - none. Accept - whatever you get.

After your programming job is done, you must then follow through with  
_distribution_ and _promotion_.  Simply uploading your shareware to
several archives is NOT enough.

The success of your shareware program can be a little like hitting one
of the lottery prizes. For a decent program with decent uses, you can
expect some registration returns if you have good distribution.

I have served many shareware authors, and the definition of success
varies. Some do it just as a pastime, they are very pleased with a
dribble of a return.  Other dedicate all working hours to it. Almost all
authors keep their results private. I have had the pleasure of
performing personal distribution services for some of the most
successful authors so I can say that results can run from a few hundred
dollars a month up to over twenty thousand dollars a month income. On
the whole, I have not seen many wildly successful authors maintain the
top position for more than a couple of years.

For the most part, do not expect wild success. The authors that are
wildly successful are full time - complete with well thought out
marketing plans, great distribution, constant marketing, constant
programming improvements, and hired help. They work hard to be
successful.

In a way - you can compare the shareware market to book publishing, and 
c|net and ZDNet Most-Popular Downloads to the New York Best Selling
Books list. Some publications fail, most do a little business, a few go
wild.